Life

Census 2021- first results

July 11, 2022

5 minutes read

While writing this article, I thought I was boring myself at one point. So I decided to delete what I had written and start again. About halfway through working on the second version, I found it even more boring than the first. I have a very limited amount of time I can devote to writing, so I decided that for the first time, I would publish what I found boring text. There is a first time for everything… Don’t say I didn’t warn you!

DATA GEEKS ARE NOT HAPPY
I waited a very long time for the results of the latest Census. I was not the only one who was very unhappy with the delay in the publication of its results. When the publication date finally came, the ONS announced that the results would be announced “in instalments”. A small scandal erupted in the ‘data geeks’ community because of this. Blogs and youtube channels were overflowing with theories about why the ONS had decided to distribute the results in such an unusual way for the first time. Until now, the results of every previous Census have been announced quickly and in full. The delays and the change in the mode of distribution of the latest Census data make it challenging to analyse social change over the last decade. The ONS explains itself by a pandemic, but many commentators spin their own theories about this. I won’t go into them and will go straight to what I have been able to glean from the ONS data so far.

I CAN’T WAIT ANYMORE!
Several websites analysing various data did not put up with the delay and started publishing ‘estimated’ data. I observe several such sites. The data on these sites was in no way based on ONS data but rather on data from the housing market. I managed to dig up a screenshot of the projected population of Bolsover District from one such site. As you can see below- the ‘data geeks’ were only wrong by 1005 people in predicting the population of Bolsover District.

Data from ONS

Data from an amateur site

Up until now, I have always used Census 2011 data in my articles. When writing general articles, you can rely on this data, but when you want to delve into the detail, you will quickly see that the 2011 data does not reflect the profound changes that have been taking place in Shirebrook for the last few years (new wing of SD, new residential area, multiple HMO’s). I was very hopeful that another article summarising the financial situation of our town (I am still awaiting responses from several Councils) against other Parish/Town Councils would have already been produced using the latest data.

Unfortunately, the first ‘data dump’ from the ONS proved to be superficial – the data only shows figures from whole districts without a breakdown by town. In addition, there is very little data in the first publication, and ‘graphic fireworks have covered up the factual emptiness’. I have included a link to the ONS blog post at the end of this article.

The ONS article looks really pleasing to the eye, but it is a treatment that I think is designed to distract from the fact that the ONS has not published what everyone has been waiting for, just what everyone knows about – population age data.

DISTRICT GREW
The Bolsover District population grew by 5.8% to 80,300. This is less than the national average, but independent analysts indicate that the most significant increases were recorded in areas where the native English population is already an ethnic minority. The largest increase of 20% -22% were recorded in areas of London inhabited mainly by Asian and African “minorities”.

Some analysts see this as an extremely dangerous trend that may end up destroying English culture over the next several decades. I think this trend will be extremely difficult to stop because it started a long time ago, in the days of Tony Blair. Sadly, Conservative governments also failed to reverse this trend. Their plans are constantly being sabotaged by left-wing lawyers, the Civil Service, and allegations by members of left-wing political parties and MSM claiming that any attempt to stop illegal immigration is racist.

The only solution that gives hope of saving English culture is to stop emigration completely for at least a few years and to devote considerable resources to the forcible assimilation of minorities who reject English values based on tolerance, freedom of speech, gender equality and democracy. Left-wing multiculturalism simply does not work when there are too many emigrants and new ones keep flowing.

Some analysts say outright that the ONS has not released data on the change in ethnic distribution to hide the fact that Native English people will soon become an ethnic minority in some parts of the country. Sooner or later, however, these data will be published. Will they then gain such wide media attention as the first ONS publications? I doubt it.

As for our district, despite the over 5% increase in population, our position in the country has practically not changed. These data show that people who complain about overpopulation in our region are not right. Our district is one of the least inhabited in the area, and population growth is low.

POPULATION DENSITY
Those who think too many people live here should also look closely at population densities elsewhere in the country. As you can see- Bolsover is not as bad as it may seem.

SCARY AGE CHART
The last screenshot I want to present is the scariest one. It shows the changes in the population in each age group. The change in group 70-74 is so significant that the percentage description did not fit on the screen! Growth in younger age groups is so small that the most significant social threat facing the UK is clearly visible – the ageing population.

I haven’t mentioned it before, but in my travels around the other Councils – the most striking element was the age of the councillors. Out of several dozen councillors that I had the opportunity to observe, only two of them were younger than me. Two out of several dozen! The average age of some councils is well over 75, which threatens the continuity and quality of local authorities. I will try to explain this in more detail in one of the upcoming articles.

It would be nice to see this type of data for Shirebrook – you could deduce from this whether we will need a youth club, or maybe more activities for young children, or maybe the Council should focus more on services and activities for retirees. The increase in the population of people over 65 in our region is remarkable – it reaches almost 18%, while the rise in the 15-64 and 0-15 groups is only 3%. These are not good numbers …

Below is a link to the ONS blog