POLITICAL LANDSCAPE AFTER SHIREBROOK BY-ELECTIONS

July 13, 2025

5 minutes read

The Shirebrook by-elections have concluded, with winners taking their seats and losers regrouping for future campaigns. Now, with the dust settled, it’s time to dig into the numbers, make some charts, and ask: what do those results really tell us?

WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
In Shirebrook North, Martin Barber secured 477 votes, comfortably beating Reform UK’s Oliver Jon Kershaw-Dickson, who received 171 votes. In Shirebrook South, Tony Burns came out on top with 375 votes, ahead of Reform’s Russell Dixon, who finished with 185.

For comparison, I received 232 votes in the 2023 elections when I ran as an Independent against both Labour and Conservative candidates. This time, both main parties were absent. Still, I will use my last result as a baseline to show you why these results are fascinating to analyse.

At first glance, this appears to be a clear surge in support for Independent candidates, but a closer look reveals a more complicated picture.

THE LABOUR EFFECT
Labour didn’t field any candidates this time, but their shadow still loomed large. Reform UK positions itself as Labour’s fiercest critic, both nationally and locally. So it’s no surprise that many core Labour voters turned out mainly to block Reform. In that context, their vote for the Independents wasn’t about love for the candidate. It was tactical. A red vote in disguise.

From what I’ve seen, Labour has a loyal base of around 200 to 250 voters per ward: no matter the scandals, no matter the campaign performance, or name recognition. Another 50 to 150 votes typically swing depending on the candidates and national political climate. If my assessment is correct (that around 200 core Labour votes went to the Independents), then only Martin Barber can be somewhat confident of his seat in the full election. Tony Burns, on the other hand, would likely drop to around 175-200 votes and lose the election.

REFORM UK: PRESENT BUT UNINSPIRED
Their campaign felt… muted. Corporate leaflets, sparse social media posts, no strong local message, no name recognition. It felt like they were running a national campaign from a Google Doc instead of knocking on doors in Shirebrook. They meant well, that much is clear (and apparent if you read the S247 interview with the candidates), but they lacked the “umph,” the X factor. In other words, I expected more. To me, it felt like my first campaign—shy, inexperienced, testing the waters. I bet their second run will be much better.

What did this election teach us about Reform’s potential? Their base is around 100-120 people. They can count on some votes from Conservatives and people who left Labour. The fact is they ran against community behemoths: two candidates with huge name recognition and following. In full elections, each voter in South/North will have seven votes (if nothing changes in ward allocations). Nothing prevents people who voted Independent from also supporting Reform. Still, if Reform wants to play any real role in STC they need to work hard and double their core base.

Is it possible for Reform to achieve significantly better results than in this election? Only if they can energise right-wing voters who’ve lost hope in Shirebrook and never vote in local elections. The only reason the right keeps losing elections here is low turnout among right and centre-right voters. If they change that, the sky’s the limit, as the result of Cllr Sarah Reaney clearly showed. She ran an inspired, active campaign and was rewarded with the best Reform result in Derbyshire. People of Shirebrook can show up if approached in right way by right person…

ELECTION PACT OF THE OPPOSITION
That’s why I still believe that the election pact between the opposition must be implemented before the next local elections. No one said that the SOS, Reform and the rest of the opposition have to field 16 candidates each. They can choose to field only 3-4 candidates in the North, 3-4 in the South, and one in the awkward “Fritchley” ward in the northern part of town. This way, each faction can fully support their ticket and at the same time “lend” some strategic votes to other opposition factions. It should be coordinated, agreed on and planned. Voters need to know what the opposition stands for and how it plans to achieve its goals.

Is that enough to win against Labour in full elections? I don’t know. But I know for sure- if the opposition goes into the election fractured it will be way harder to overcome Labour hardcore voters.

CONSERVATIVES – LEADERLESS, GUTLESS… JUST LESS
Another big absentee. Since I left the Conservative Party, it feels like they’ve lost their backbone. No leadership. No fight. No fire. Just a group of people happy to sit back and wait for Labour to mess up, then hope voters come running back by default. They won’t. At least not in the near future. The taste of betrayal among the core base is still too fresh, and now the core voting bloc has someone else to support.

Today’s Conservatives introduced gender ideology into schools and the NHS, increased taxes, and allowed immigration to overflow the country. There’s nothing conservative about the Conservative Party anymore. Only the logo remains, and that’s not enough.

The whole “broad church” idea just attracted opportunists, leftists, wokerati, and no one else. These “new” Conservatives wrecked the party and pushed out real conservatives through the usual leftist strategy: plotting and accusations. The left excels at destroying things, as they do with everything they touch.

YOU WON. WHAT NOW?
This part is for our new councillors: Martin Barber and Tony Burns. In short: these results aren’t a revolution, but they are a reminder that Shirebrook is STILL A LABOUR STRONGHOLD. Jot that down. Remember it. Prepare for a much more brutal fight in 2027.

If people close their eyes and vote the way they always have, we’ll end up with a 100% Labour council again—no matter how hard you work on your agenda in the two years residents have given you. Believe me—I know. I was there. At every meeting. Uncovering scandals, corruption, and nepotism. Voting against tax rises and Crematorium. Writing reports for constituents. And I lost. Badly. To people like Fritchley, Kane and Harford. To people who are 90 years old and hardly do anything but breathe.

I know that doesn’t discourage you. I lost, but that doesn’t mean you will. I’m proud of what I achieved. I gave 100%, and no one can take that away from me. I wish you the same. Work hard. Keep your values. Do your best for the people who elected you.

THE FINAL STRAW? OR JUST THE START?
After the debacle of the 2023 elections, I was slowly losing hope. I admit it: plain and straight. Shirebrook residents seem either disconnected from reality… or so far left that they’ll ignore scandal after scandal, as long as it’s Labour in STC. All I see is a bunch of sleepwalkers supporting a party that covers up rapes, champions the suppression of free speech, and indulges in corruption and nepotism. It’s terrifying.

Change doesn’t begin with applause. It begins when someone says: enough. Yesterday, it was me. Today, it was Martin, Tony, Oliver, and Russell. When I ran for the first time, I was the only non-Labour candidate in the whole town willing to stand against them. Today, there were four people. How many will stand up tomorrow?

This by-election felt like a wind of change. Refreshing. And I’ll bet anything that by 2027, there will be more than just one opposition voice on the ballot.